Time For a Rematch... Wimbledon Final Preview

We are a day away from the Wimbledon men's final! It is the Roland Garros final rematch we were all hoping for between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Since it is such a highly anticipated (and wanted) final, I wondered what can we expect from the final?

For one, it will be a rematch of epic proportions: Just 35 days after the 5 hour and  29 minute French Open final (the longest ever at Roland Garros) where Alcaraz overcame a two-set deficit to beat Sinner, this wimbledon final will be their 13th career meeting, with Alcaraz holding an 8–4 lead.

What is on the line?

Winning the wimbledon title is a dream for any tennis player. But this years title holds potential for history. Alcaraz goes for a historic third consecutive Wimbledon title, joining legends like Federer, Djokovic, Borg, and Sampras.

Sinner, on the other hand, has no wimbledon title yet and seeks his first Wimbledon title. For sinner, this would also be the first grand slam won on another surface than hard court (australian open '24,'25, US open '24).

What do we need to watch out for?

With the last epic final between these to titans of the game still fresh in our memory, it is hard to predict who is going to take this one. Yet, there are some key metrics that could play a deciding factor in a tight matchup like this one.

• First serve percentage: The first serve is a key element of both players' game. In previous rounds they both served above tournament averages in serve quality and percentage. Sinner's only exepction was in the match against Dimitrov. Alcaraz has been relatively consistent.

• Returns: Serve percentage has been one of the most important stats this tournament. However, the return also played a crucial part in both players sucess. The one who is able to take (especially the second) serve early and faster, will get more looks at break points or take the upper hand in tie breaks.

• Movement on court (out of the corners): The movement pattern on grass is very different than any other surface during the year. Both players are exeptional athletes, and are capable to move on grass. I think Alcaraz has an advantage here and is more comfortable moving on grass. Sinner (although he moves incredibly well) seems a bit more uncomfortable coming out of the corners and slides a bit more on the grass. The sliding makes it hard to change direction quickly. This will give Alcaraz a chance to dictate the pace of the game.

• The mental aspect: Both players are already very seasoned when it comes to important matches. But, both players are still human are prone to feel pressure too. Sinner will be looking for redemption of the Roland Garros final. I don't think it keeps him busy just yet, but in tight moments it might pop up in his head. Alcaraz on the other hand may feel some pressure to win a third championship in a row (something not many players have done) and joining a list of legends of the game. I think both players know how to handle pressure very well and that this one comes down to who does it best on that day.

• Physical demands: Although Sinner looked good in his matches against Shelton and Djokovic, it is still a question how his elbow will hold up in the final. Alcaraz will look to throw around a lot of power and pace to dominate the game, and the question is if the elbow will keep up with it.

My predictions

I think that both players will come out ready to play and the match will be very close. Alcaraz will be looking to take lead in the rallies and Sinner will be looking for a counter into the corner to take over. I give Alcaraz the upper hand because he looks to be moving more comfortable, serving big, and his return games are solid overall.

My final prediction is that Alcaraz will win his third Wimbledon title in a row in 5 sets.

Last but not least: Regardless of who lifts the trophy. I hope we get to see an epic battle between two of the best players of the game, and that the sport of tennis will be the absolute winner in the end.